San Diego Snapshot 4/13/2008

Notice a huge increase in the # of homes in this profile. This only points to an increase in market deterioration. We haven't seen anything yet!

Continued increase in SFR shorts......many more ARMs resetting this summer!

Alas, a bit of sanity in an insane world!

Fellow bloggers,

It's been a few years since single family homes were under $300K (at least ones that are deemed livable), however this year is a new year, a year where we take back our right to live in the finest city in the world and not have to sell our kids or in-laws on ebay (although the money may not necessarily be a factor when the in-laws are involved).

Ladies and Gents.......I present:

I must admit it's nice to see the number 2 again.

Bob

Honey, the neighbor's bank just screwed us!

The homeowners at 2195 Plesantwood put their home up for sale 37 days ago for $469,000. That would mean a nice profit of $269,000 from the original purchase price of $200,000 in 1998.





Little did the homeowners at 2195 Plesantwood know that their neighbors down the street at 2141 Pleasantwood didn't really win the lottery and move to Monaco, no the only thing they received was an eviction notice to vacate the property asap.


Their bank, meanwhile, forgot to take into account the feelings of homeowners at 2195 Plesantwood Lane and quickly listed the home for $369,000.






I suppose as terrible as it sounds a $169,000 profit in 10 years will have to do.

San Diego County seeing 2002-2003 pricing levels

According to DataQuick, the combined median price for a home in San Diego county is $415,000. Looking back in history that puts us in between 2002 and 2003 pricing levels. While that's a step in the right direction most homes are still overpriced.

If you take the median price for 2000 ($269,000) and add 3% inflation for 8 years that gets us $340,000. So the $415,000 median price is about 20% inflated.

San Diego Snapshot 4/5/2008

Figure 1 shows the inventory of SFRs in the county that meet the following criteria:

1) Cost < $500K

2) Bedroom s>3

3) Bathrooms >2

4) Living Area >1750 sq ft

Trend: More homes are priced under $500K, most likely reaching 2000+ by late Fall 08.

The figure 2 below shows the short sales for the same period:

Trend: Upswing in shorts, looks like the most in years!

Any loss you can take, I can take deeper!

A battle of "who can sell their house first" is brewing in Escondido. Oakwood Creek Place to be specific.

The homeowners at 679 Oakwood Creek Place put their 2376 sq ft home on the market nearly 22 days ago at $400,000. This is the home they purchased in Jan 2005 for a mere bargain of $574,000 at the time.

Meanwhile, the homeowners at 657 Oakwood Creek Place weren't going to wait for 679's comp to hit the books, so 10 days later they list the 2400 sq ft home they also purchased in Jan 2005 for $599,500 on the market for $395,000.

Where is our government to help bail out these folks, lets give them a lower interest rate, or better yet lets buy their homes using tax payer dollars.....

The bottomline is in 2005 there were hardly any real homeowners buying, however there were many flippers in for a quick buck. When you treat homes as stocks you are liable to get burned, and you did. I sure as heck don't want the government bailing out these people or for that matter any banks either.

REDC Closer Look

Real Estate Disposition Corporation (REDC) sells real estate assets through the utilization of the auction marketing process. On April 12 in Del Mar over 200 properties (mostly foreclosures) will be auctioned off to the highest bidder. You might be wondering if you can get in a home cheap?

Let's take a closer look:

This property was sold new for $734,500 in Feb 2005. It is currently owned by Countrywide Bank and was sold at auction in Jan 2007 for $540,454.63 and was recently listed for on the MLS for $549,900 as of 1/30/2008.

With no buyer insight Countywide has turned to REDC to sell this property at auction.
How much is it worth?

There are currently 4 properties in near proximity that are currently being listed:

1090 MOUNT WHITNEY RD, 2950 sq ft, 5Br, 3Ba for $514,900
1069 MOUNT WHITNEY RD, 2860 sq ft, 5Br, 3Ba for $525,000
1074 MOUNT WHITNEY RD, 2860 sq ft, 5Br, 3Ba for $494,780
1445 AUTUMN HILLS DR, 2950 sq ft, 5Br, 3Ba for $450,000

So that's about $170 /per sq ft on average or $457,000 for the house.

So just because the starting bid is $249,000, I would venture to say that Countrywide will not accept more than a 100K hit on this home. I would also venture that Countrywide will happily dump this money pit off their books for $450-475K.