San Diego County seeing 2002-2003 pricing levels

According to DataQuick, the combined median price for a home in San Diego county is $415,000. Looking back in history that puts us in between 2002 and 2003 pricing levels. While that's a step in the right direction most homes are still overpriced.

If you take the median price for 2000 ($269,000) and add 3% inflation for 8 years that gets us $340,000. So the $415,000 median price is about 20% inflated.

San Diego Snapshot 4/5/2008

Figure 1 shows the inventory of SFRs in the county that meet the following criteria:

1) Cost < $500K

2) Bedroom s>3

3) Bathrooms >2

4) Living Area >1750 sq ft

Trend: More homes are priced under $500K, most likely reaching 2000+ by late Fall 08.

The figure 2 below shows the short sales for the same period:

Trend: Upswing in shorts, looks like the most in years!

Any loss you can take, I can take deeper!

A battle of "who can sell their house first" is brewing in Escondido. Oakwood Creek Place to be specific.

The homeowners at 679 Oakwood Creek Place put their 2376 sq ft home on the market nearly 22 days ago at $400,000. This is the home they purchased in Jan 2005 for a mere bargain of $574,000 at the time.

Meanwhile, the homeowners at 657 Oakwood Creek Place weren't going to wait for 679's comp to hit the books, so 10 days later they list the 2400 sq ft home they also purchased in Jan 2005 for $599,500 on the market for $395,000.

Where is our government to help bail out these folks, lets give them a lower interest rate, or better yet lets buy their homes using tax payer dollars.....

The bottomline is in 2005 there were hardly any real homeowners buying, however there were many flippers in for a quick buck. When you treat homes as stocks you are liable to get burned, and you did. I sure as heck don't want the government bailing out these people or for that matter any banks either.

REDC Closer Look

Real Estate Disposition Corporation (REDC) sells real estate assets through the utilization of the auction marketing process. On April 12 in Del Mar over 200 properties (mostly foreclosures) will be auctioned off to the highest bidder. You might be wondering if you can get in a home cheap?

Let's take a closer look:

This property was sold new for $734,500 in Feb 2005. It is currently owned by Countrywide Bank and was sold at auction in Jan 2007 for $540,454.63 and was recently listed for on the MLS for $549,900 as of 1/30/2008.

With no buyer insight Countywide has turned to REDC to sell this property at auction.
How much is it worth?

There are currently 4 properties in near proximity that are currently being listed:

1090 MOUNT WHITNEY RD, 2950 sq ft, 5Br, 3Ba for $514,900
1069 MOUNT WHITNEY RD, 2860 sq ft, 5Br, 3Ba for $525,000
1074 MOUNT WHITNEY RD, 2860 sq ft, 5Br, 3Ba for $494,780
1445 AUTUMN HILLS DR, 2950 sq ft, 5Br, 3Ba for $450,000

So that's about $170 /per sq ft on average or $457,000 for the house.

So just because the starting bid is $249,000, I would venture to say that Countrywide will not accept more than a 100K hit on this home. I would also venture that Countrywide will happily dump this money pit off their books for $450-475K.

San Diego Snapshot 3/28/2007

Figure 1 shows the inventory of SFRs in the county that meet the following criteria:

1) Cost < $500K
2) Bedroom >3
3) Bathrooms >2
4) Living Area >1750 sq ft





The figure 2 below shows the short sales for the same period:

I started tracking this last year and missed a few months, however you can see that the rise in both cases has been nearly exponential.

Homes are becoming more affordable and while owners are quickly becoming upside down on their biggest investments.

Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

OFHEO's (http://www.ofheo.gov/) mission is to promote housing and a strong national housing finance system by ensuring the safety and soundness of Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation).

OFHEO's oversight responsibilities include:

Conducting broad based examinations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; Developing a risk-based capital standard, using a "stress test" that simulates stressful interest rate and credit risk scenarios; Making quarterly findings of capital adequacy based on minimum capital standards and a risk-based standard; Prohibiting excessive executive compensation; Issuing regulations concerning capital and enforcement standards; and Taking necessary enforcement actions.

OFHEO also produces the House Price Index (HPI) at the national and state level. The HPI measures the appreciation rates by fiscal quarter:

Figure one shows California's HPI since 1991 and it ain't pretty: (http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/statepdfs/CA.pdf)

The website also allows you to track HPI by three local areas (http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi_city.aspx) so check it out.

Tax tips for a tanking market--reappraise your home!

Q. When can I appeal my assessed value?

A. Under State law, if the current market value of your property (recent comparable sales) falls below the assessed or taxable value as shown on your tax bill, the Assessor's Office is required to lower the assessment. This type of property tax relief generally applies to recently purchased property. There are two periods during the year in which the taxpayer may appeal their assessed value for a temporary reduction:

(1) Between March through May:
During this period, the taxpayer may submit a written request to the Assessor, indicating their opinion of value and providing supporting documentation, such as sales of comparable properties or a recent appraisal. For more information, call (858) 505-6262.
(2) Between July 2 and November 30:
During this period, the taxpayer must file an application form. Appeal forms can be obtained and must be filed with the Clerk of the Board at 1600 Pacific Highway, Room 402, San Diego, CA 92101-2471. For more information, call (619) 531-5777.